You know what it is, you know what it be. Issa me.
Unlike the fake Bible, we keep ours updated. Just because I’m a powerful presence doesn’t mean you should believe everything I said once upon a time (two weeks ago when I wrote the Bible). Things change. Preseason matters, usage matters, nothing matters tbh.
After each preseason slate, we’re finna tuck our shirts in & drink our way through the most important things we saw that weekend. Our Week 3 scripture lies ahead.
T.Y. Hilton gets hurt (neck) again, but we weren’t drafting him anyways. I don’t know who needs to hear this, but having 94 speed in Madden 2017 doesn’t equal upside. With Carson Wentz expected to be ready for Week 1, and top offensive lineman Quenton Nelson following suit, the Colts real offense will be close to 100% for the rip of the season and I’m starting to like Michael Pittman more and more as a value play where he’s getting picked.
Breshad Perriman just got cut, which hurts my insides a bit because out of all of the shitty WRs the Lions brought in this offseason, he was the guy I was most invested in. Unfortunately, the only other guy I like in Detroit as a pass-catcher is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is still struggling to find his way onto the field outside of splitting time in 3WR sets. The rookie hasn’t played in a single snap in 12 or 21 personnel all preseason. No pass-catcher on Detroit is worth drafting at the moment, AMRSB is a guy you pick up in Week 7 when you start to see his snap counts usurp the 70% mark. For now, avoid the poor-mans Russell Gage (Cephus), the already injured Tyrell Williams, and draft T.J. Hockenson.
Michael Carter is still one of the worst single-digit round picks in fantasy football. At no point this offseason has he run with the starters. The only time he’s even the direct backup running back is when one of either Tevin Coleman or Ty Johnson didn’t play. I would legitimately draft both Johnson and Coleman in drafts before Carter. We’re not talking value, I would put their name on the board first. But that doesn’t mean I want either of them. This is an RBBC with little touchdown upside. Also on the Jets, it’s probably wise to let Elijah Moore fall a bit in drafts, at least from where he started going a few weeks ago (Rounds 9-10). He has yet to return to the field for any preseason action and I think he’s all but guaranteed a slow start to the year. I’d be fine letting someone else draft him, drop him and pick him up when we see the snap count start to rise.
Terrace Marshall looks to be that guy. Y’all know what I mean if you drafted him. Another sexy performance from the newly minted 21-year-old rookie out of LSU. He’s clearly still behind both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson in 2WR sets, and I don’t expect that to change in 2021. Anderson just caught an extension and Moore is way too good to get benched. But Marshall is a big play waiting to happen when he’s on the field and as the favorite to be the WR3, that could be enough to warrant fantasy value. Under Joe Brady last year, the Panthers ran 3 or more WRs on 66% of their plays. I’m not going to reach on Marshall because of the big plays he’s made this preseason, but he’s a guy who most normal fantasy dudes won’t know the name of, that you might be able to roster for a 13th, 14th, 15th round pick.
If you’re drafting Najee Harris in the first round, draft Anthony McFarland with one of your last picks. He has been the clear handcuff all preseason and in Pitt’s final preseason game, run AMC was rested along with the key starters.
Mecole Hardman FINALLY caught the start for KC in 2WR sets, but still split snaps with Demarcus Robinson. Neither are guys I want to draft at this point.
The tears started flowing when the news of Irv Smith’s torn meniscus broke. Smith was on a clear breakout path this year, but he’ll be undergoing surgery, but we don’t yet know the extent of the rehab for Smith Worst-case scenario would sideline him for the entire year. Best case scenario he misses around 4-5 weeks. In any case, he’s off our draft boards in season-long leagues :(. Tyler Conklin actually becomes an intriguing play and is now slotted in at TE17 in my rankings. This is a highly funneled passing offense that seems to always produce fantasy points at the TE position.
Somehow, figuring out the Bills running back to draft this year has gotten trickier. Josh Allen played in this one, and every single one of his first-quarter snaps were passes. Devin Singletary played every snap of the first quarter, while Zack Moss dominated the second quarter – both were with Allen on the field. Neither back had an inspiring performance. I’m still taking a shot on Zack Moss over Singletary, but for me it’s still Allen, Diggs, Sanders for players that I want to own in this offense.
And then this, the report heard around the world:
An MRI today confirmed that Ravens’ RB J.K. Dobbins, one of the top young running backs in the game, suffered a season-ending torn ACL, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 29, 2021
I was posted up at Washington Square Park, with the homies and homettes, marg in hand when this dropped, as did my stomach. Absolutely devastating. With Dobbins out for the year, Gus Edwards settles in around RB19-20 for me. We know there’s very little upside in the passing game for running backs in Baltimore, and if there was going to be any in 2021, it was going to come from Dobbins being good enough to COMMAND it happening. Edwards has a total of 18 career receptions in 43 games. Almost literally a zero in that column. Of course, there’s ALWAYS a chance that Gus rumbles his way to 12+ rushing scores this year. This is a Ravens team that births RB touchdowns like they’re Antonio Cromartie with the protection. I don’t love to bank on TD luck, which is why you’ll see him sitting around RB20 in my rankings. Very solid volume floor, but it’s possible that’s ALL you get from the bus this year. Dobbins had league-winning potential, Gus simply doesn’t.
The Ravens have done nothing over the last few years to suggest anything other than an RBBC in their backfield and I project that to be the case. The RB2 conversation here gets interesting. One would assume it’s Justice Hill’s job, but reports have suggested otherwise. Justice Hill is an ultra-explosive undersized back that kept Chris Carson on the bench at Oklahoma State, but has done very little on Sunday’s after two years.
While you might think grabbing Hill late is sharp fantasy twitter is hitting you with their best Lee Corso impression on that NOT SO FAST Tip
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 30, 2021
In this article from ESPN, Jamison Henley straight up said “Edwards’ backup is Ty’Son Williams, a second-year player out of BYU who leapfrogged Justice Hill on the depth chart. Williams impressed the Ravens with his physicality.”
Who is Ty’Son Williams? I have no idea. So you can imagine how confused I was over the weekend when I heard the name while off the margs. For a quick bio dive on his prospect profile you can check out this article, but let’s take a look.
William’s profile seems relatively cut and dry. Honestly, looks like a poor man’s Gus Edwards. Big body with legit long-speed.
My concern revolves around whether or not he’s good at football. Williams couldn’t command 100 carries or more than 12 catches in 4 years of college. To be fair, he transferred not once, but twice (UNC -> South Carolina -> BYU) and it’s hard to carve out an immediate role moving around so much. He dealt with injuries and other times was stuck behind NFL running backs (Rico Dowdle), etc. But excuses turn into mistakes in fantasy football. Regardless, I like Williams’ athletic profile enough to draft him in the late, late rounds of my drafts. I’d be fine taking Hill or Williams late and seeing how the coochie crumbles.
AND with all that being said, you should blow whatever remaining off-season FAAB you have on Williams or Hill in your dynasty leagues (assuming you’re in normal dynasty leagues with 24+ player rosters), not up for debate. You don’t ever let random RBs that slipped into opportunity pass you by during the summer. The upside outweighs the risk like Animal outweighs Tutu Atwell.
With all the injuries in Baltimore (Dobbins, Bateman, Brown), Mark Andrews has nowhere to be other than your top-5 tight ends.
Gronk has been one of our favorite late-round TEs to draft this year – the Brady/Gronk connection is just too real, and with O.J. Howard is still far from 100% off his Achilles injury, and Cameron Brate playing exclusively with the 2’s while Gronk monopolizes 1st team snaps. There still remains no reason to pay up for Chris Godwin or Mike Evans while Antonio Brown and Gronk will be on the field just as much, for half the draft price. The Bucs backfield remains a fuckin mess, with RoJo, Fournette continuing to split early-down work, and Gio taking the 3rd down snaps. I’m out on the backs here other than super late Gio in PPR leagues – there’s a chance with Brady under center that the former Bengal’s annoyance catches 55+ passes.
After occupying a slot on the underrated/sleeper list, Gerald Everett finds himself moving closer to the all-fade list than the must-draft list. It’s clear that one way or another, Will Dissly likely being that way, this is going to be a split at tight end. The two are splitting snaps with the first team evenly. Everett has always been a fun name to toss around because of his athleticism, but at 27 years old, he’s yet to convert that athleticism into NFL production and it doesn’t look like the equation is going to flip in 2021. Tbh, give me Tyler Conklin over Everett.
This is exactly why I was hesitant to rank James Robinson within arm’s reach of a top-15 fantasy running back.
Our first look at the #Jaguars backfield without Travis Etienne last night …
1st-team RB snaps:
James Robinson – 10
Carlos Hyde – 7
Robinson – 6
Hyde – 4
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 30, 2021
One way or another, Carlos Hyde is going to take an absolutely maddening number of snaps in this backfield away from Robinson. Does he deserve it? Absolutely not. But that doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is that Urban Meyer’s brain simply isn’t fit for NFL personnel.
Laviska Shenault is officially off the all-fade list. He’s simply looked too good and been too involved this preseason while T-Law has been under center. Maybe that’s in part due to D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones and Travis Etienne all being hurt, but it doesn’t matter at this point. It’s worth noting that Viska is still NOT paying in 12-personnel (2WR, 2TE, 1RB), but not using the formation all that often so it might not be as big of a concern as originally anticipated.
The Patriot’s backfield rotation is as clear as day, for possibly the first time ever. Despite preseason MVP Rhamondre the Gawd Stevenson running up a touchdown tab that even Bill Gates would hesitate to pay, he has yet to step foot on the field with the starting offense. It’s Damien Harris and it’s James White. And that’s it. Harris has taken nearly every single 1st and 2nd down snap for the Pats, while James White is monopolizing 3rd downs. Harris remains one of the best mid-round values at running back in fantasy this year.
Don’t waste a pick on John Brown. I don’t care if it’s the 15th round.